Political Diary
July 20, 2008

Just Another Pol

John McCain continues to trail Barack Obama in this week's latest polls, though there are signs that Obamamania may be abating slightly. An ABC News poll reports that Mr. Obama now has only a 49% to 46% lead among likely voters.

The good news for Mr. Obama is that he narrowly leads among independents and white women, key demographic groups he must add to his overwhelming support among Democrats and African-Americans. But his Achilles heel could prove to be young people, who provided much of the enthusiastic support he used to win the Democratic primaries. The ABC poll found that in March, 66% of voters under the age of 30 said they would vote in November no matter what. Today, that number is down to 46% -- a far more typical measurement of the engagement of young people in politics.

ABC's George Stephanopoulos says enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate among young voters "has been dampened" and "all of the questions in recent weeks on whether or not Barack Obama is shifting positions, becoming 'a typical politician,' is turning some of them off."

Moving abruptly to the center, as Mr. Obama has been doing, may be a smart overall political strategy. But it clearly comes at some cost to his standing among his most idealistic supporters.

-- John Fund